Should COVID-19 become endemic?
Should COVID-19 become endemic?
Aggressive diseases like SARS produce to epidemics – outbreaks where the amount of latest cases flares up rapidly during a region. Effective, evidence-based public health measures reduce the number of latest patients infected, until these aggressive diseases are controlled. In contrast, epidemic disease is consistently present during a certain geographical area. An honest example of an epidemic disease is malaria, which is consistently present in tropical regions of Africa, Asia, and Latin America.
The 2003 SARS epidemic was controlled by a mixture of effective international surveillance methods and native, evidence-based public health measures. International surveillance systems alerted the authorities of the emergence of a unique disease, helping found out guidance for travelers, airlines, and crew. It also set in motion a worldwide response that prevented the spread of the disease and helped the local public health efforts to spot and quarantine infected people. Effectively, this combined response prevented SARS from becoming endemic. By July 2003, four months from the onset of the outbreak, human-to-human transmission of SARS had stopped.
Uncertainty of Future:
There are still many unknowns that may affect how deadly recurring waves of COVID-19 can be. We don’t yet know, for instance, how long someone remains proof against the novel coronavirus after an infection.
“The No. one thing we expect about in terms of whether something goes to be endemic or whether it’s possible to eradicate it's whether immunity is permanent or long-lasting,” says Emily Toth Martin, a professor of immunology at the University of Michigan’s School of Public Health. “If you’ve got apandemic where immunity can wane over time and someone can get reinfected, that's areally difficult virus for it to be eradicated.”
With the opposite four coronaviruses currently endemic in humans, we allknow that immunity disappears gradually over time — it likely takes years. Adults might get infected with theidentical virus they'd like ababy.
But even thistype of temporary immunity maywellbe crucial withinthe short term. Doctors who have already been infected could treat patients withoutconcern about becoming sick. theidentical goes for other essential workers, like foodmarket clerks, resthome aides, delivery people etc..
And whetheror not someone gets sick with the coronavirus again, the second infection won't be as bad. With other viruses, there’s evidence that, whether or not someone is reinfected, their system can be better equipped to handle it the second time around, Martin says.
A virus’s mutation rate is another important consideration determining the severity of the reappearances of a deadly disease virus. The flu is so pervasive because it mutates readily, swapping aroundthe surface proteins that our immune systems dependon toacknowledge viruses.
You can get a new flu infection every year because your antibodies are not necessarily as protective,” says Andrew Brouwer, a research scientist and epidemiological modeler also at the University of Michigan’s School of Public Health. “We don’t really know what that’s going to look like for this virus.